Last week ended with Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterating the central bank’s commitment to keeping interest rates high enough to choke off economic activity while bringing inflation back down to its 2% annual target.
“It is the Fed's job to bring inflation down to our 2 percent goal, and we will do so,” Powell said during his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday. “We have tightened policy significantly over the past year. Although inflation has moved down from its peak – a welcome development – it remains too high. We are prepared to raise rates further if appropriate, and intend to hold policy at a restrictive level until we are confident that inflation is moving sustainably down toward our objective.”
That will be done while also keeping a close eye on incoming economic data, Powell added.
Well, there will be no shortage of new data this week from a consumer confidence reading for August, an update on second quarter gross domestic product, home prices for June and pending home sale for July, along with a bevy of reports on the labor market. And no doubt the stock and bond markets will continue to analyze Powell’s comments and price in any anticipated actions by the Fed.
“We believe the Fed will remain vigilant and data dependent in determining whether rates sustained at current levels for a longer period of time or further rate rises will be needed,” Vanguard senior economist Andrew Patterson said on Friday. “Our baseline is for the latter, another 1-3 hikes are possible over the next several months and into next year before leaving them on hold for some time and only cutting when broader macro conditions weaken, resulting in a shallow recession.”
One piece of the puzzle for Powell will be the health of the labor market. On Tuesday, the Labor Department will release the number of job openings as of the end of July. Analysts are forecasting the number at 9.45 million following June’s 9.6 million.
On Wednesday, private payroll firm ADP will release its monthly employment survey for August with 194,000 jobs expected following July’s supercharged 324,000 number.
But Friday brings the big data highlight of the week with the government’s report on nonfarm payrolls for August. Economists foresee another slip to 168,000 from 187,000.
Sandwiched in between are personal income and spending numbers for July as well as that month’s personal consumption price expenditures index. The inflation measure, while not as commonly known as the consumer price index, is one closely followed by the Fed. One reason that inflation has not come down closer to the Fed’s 2% annual target is that consumers continue to spend, buoyed by wage gains.
“Recession keeps getting pushed back and the staying power of the consumer is a key reason why,” said Sam Bullard, managing director and senior economist at Wells Fargo’s corporate and investment banking group. “Even as credit becomes harder to access for consumers and pandemic era savings get closer to running out, consumers continue to spend. June marked the largest monthly gain in real consumption since January, which suggests that PCE is set to start the third quarter on solid ground.”
The Fed’s monetary policy committee will meet again on Sept. 20. Although expectations have been for no change in the level of interest rates after July’s quarter-point increase, the odds of a hike at the next scheduled meeting in November are starting to creep up.
CME Group’s futures trading price the odds of a rate hike at the Fed’s November meeting at roughly 57%, up from 36% prior to Powell’s Jackson Hole comments.
B | （商报记者 项凯 摄）每日商报讯 昨天，今年第13号台风“白海豚”在湖北省境内减弱为热带低压后，风力进一步减弱，中央气象台对停止编号，杭州市气象台也解除主城区台风蓝色预警信号。
C | 虽然台风停编，但其残余云系依然庞大，风雨影响并未就此结束。
D | 据市气象台消息，今、明两天，杭州以多云到阴天为主，午后多有分散性阵雨或者雷雨影响。值得注意的是，由于前期累计雨量大，后续仍需高度警惕地质灾害滞后性可能引发的山体滑坡、泥石流、小流域山洪等次生灾害。昨天上午，杭州市规划和自然资源局、市气象局联合发布地质灾害气象风险红色预警，提醒有关地区做好地质灾害防范工作。另外，这场台风的残涡还将继续“洒水”。浙江天气网预计，周五至周六（14—15日），“白海豚”的残涡将与西风槽联手，给浙江带来一次部分中到大雨的降水过程。
E | 直到下周一（17日），偏东气流接手，沿海和浙南地区接着进入“阵雨或雷雨”的多发模式。可以说，雨雨雨的天气“接力赛”还要继续。回顾此次台风历程，“白海豚”的影响呈现出明显的极端性。
F | 据浙江省气象台消息，“白海豚”先后于8月9日登陆浙江玉环和乐清，随后穿越温州多地，并于10日两度进出我省，在浙闽交界徘徊摆动，于当日中午进入江西境内。该台风在我省滞留长达18小时，整体影响时间长达5天，大风持续时间长、累计雨量大。省气象台综合评估指出，在1949年以来登陆我省的台风中，“白海豚”属于特重影响台风。
G | 其暴雨强度超过了1909号超强台风“利奇马”，风雨综合强度与2106号台风“烟花”相当。除浙中西部地区外，全省大部地区致灾强度达到“强”或“特强”级别。从气象特征分析，“白海豚”创下多项罕见纪录。
H | 省气象台表示，“白海豚”在距离我省6000公里的远洋生成，是有气象记录以来首个在日界线附近生成并登陆我国的台风。其生命周期超长，约为普通台风的3倍，眼壁历经五次置换，强度多次调整。此外，它与台风“巴威”前后相隔不到一个月接连登陆玉环和乐清，登陆后路径南折并在浙闽交界摆动，实属历史罕见。在风雨强度方面，受“白海豚”影响，浙江出现持续暴雨天气，浙江东部和北部地区大范围大暴雨，台州、宁波中南部、温州北部、丽水东部、舟山等地更是出现特大暴雨，降雨极端性极强。
I | 同时，7日至10日，全省约85%的区域出现8级以上大风，其中沿海普遍达12至14级，部分15至17级；浙北内陆地区部分达10至11级。沿海10级以上大风持续76小时，12至14级大风持续约65小时。全省共有8个测站观测到16级以上大风，最大风速出现在玉环鲜迭，达60.8米/秒（17级），在登陆我省的台风实测风速中位列第四（前三分别为0608号台风“桑美”68.0米/秒、2609号台风“巴威”61.8米/秒、1909号台风“利奇马”61.4米/秒）。
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